Publico: European defence depends on a railway line in the Baltics

It is not a Maginot Line, nor the Lines of Torres Vedras. It has no trenches, no bunkers. No runways, no military bases. Yet one of Europe’s largest ongoing defense investments is, in appearance, nothing more than another railway line linking three northern countries to their neighbors in the center and south, within the framework of the Trans-European Transport Networks.

Rail Baltica, a 900-kilometer rail corridor from Tallinn to the Polish border – the equivalent of a line from A Coruña to Faro – is an infrastructure that, beyond carrying passengers and goods, is considered strategically crucial for defense. It enables the rapid deployment of troops and military vehicles in the event of conflict, and even the evacuation of civilians from war zones.

Its construction with the European standard gauge reflects a political choice to link the three former Soviet republics to the continent’s rail network. Gauge – the distance between rails – is 1435 mm in most of Europe, but in the Baltics (and Finland) it is 1520 mm, the Russian standard. With Rail Baltica built in the European gauge, military equipment can flow seamlessly from Poland to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, faster and with greater capacity than if transported by road.

Adapting a line for “military mobility” raises costs by 25% compared with a standard passenger-and-freight line. For example, the clearance profile – the vertical and horizontal dimensions of trains and cargo – must accommodate not only containers but also tanks and other heavy military gear.

This also requires stronger axle loads: 25 tons per axle (double the usual), which means lines and bridges must be designed for much heavier loads. Bridges, in particular, are built with reinforced pillars. Some are designed so that even if a deck is bombed, it can be replaced quickly while the structure remains intact, restoring the line in just weeks.

Project leaders are not discreet about this military purpose – they highlight it, partly to justify the scale of European funding. With NATO members reshaping budgets to meet defense commitments, the rail sector seeks its share of military infrastructure financing.

“One 40-car train can replace a 7-kilometer military convoy,” explains Marko Kivila, chairman of RB Rail, the joint venture managing the project. “The military objective was there from the design stage. What we feel now is simply more urgency to complete it.” That urgency will also shape how the line is used: “If we need to move tanks, they will take precedence over passenger and freight trains, which will have to wait until the line is cleared,” says Anvar Salomets, CEO of Rail Baltica Estonia.

Official documents are candid: Rail Baltica “strengthens regional security by ensuring vital infrastructure for mobility and logistics,” and by reinforcing ties with NATO it “ensures faster response and more effective coordination to defend lives and freedom.”

From Tallinn to Vilnius in 3h38

In EU terms, this “unprecedented” project symbolizes “unity and European integration,” involving the three Baltic states plus Poland and Finland. Poland ensures continuity into Central Europe, while Finland links through a maritime bridge between Helsinki and Tallinn.

In Tallinn, the Muuga freight terminal will become a logistics hub handling 4.5 million tons of cargo per year, easing reliance on long-haul trucks. From 2030, trains will take the lead in freight transport across the Baltics toward Central Europe. Meanwhile, compatibility with Russian-gauge lines will be maintained, preserving possible eastern connections if peace returns.

Passenger trains will run at up to 249 km/h – deliberately capped just below the 250 km/h threshold for “high speed.” The aim is versatility, handling both passengers and freight. In countries where trains rarely exceed 120 km/h, even 200 km/h will be transformative.

Travel times will be slashed:

• Tallinn–Vilnius: 3h38 instead of 10h55 today (with two transfers).
• Tallinn–Riga: 1h40 instead of 6h27 today (with one transfer).

This will render short-haul flights uncompetitive and cut CO₂ emissions by 200,000 tons annually.

Later, direct trains could link Estonia to Warsaw in under seven hours, with night trains to Berlin or Vienna possible. But full completion may not come until 2040–2045. The immediate goal is to have the Tallinn–Poland core line operational by 2030, serving mainly regional travel. Passenger demand is forecast at 16.9 million annually by 2045, and once fully built, up to 52.5 million – drawing passengers from planes, buses, and cars.

Current Baltic railways

Railways in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are relatively modern – mostly multiple-unit trains, clean, punctual, with bike spaces, and even dog drinking fountains in Lithuania. Regional services feature bars with drinks, snacks, and hot meals, rare elsewhere in Europe.

But cross-border links are scarce: just one daily service each way, making journeys impractical. In contrast, before independence in 1991, the Baltic states were fully integrated into the Soviet network, with direct day and night trains between Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn, and Moscow. Independence led each country to fragment the system, creating separate national railways. EU accession in 2004 pushed the opposite – reintegration. Rail Baltica is the culmination of that effort.

Still, the project reveals challenges: the three states are far from unified. Each moves at different speeds, struggles with funding, and lacks coordination. Instead of one joint operator, each plans to control its own section, requiring foreign operators to deal with three separate authorities. This disunity partly explains why only 43% of the first phase is currently underway.

Few visible works so far

Notable works include:

• Estonia: the new central station at Ülemiste in Tallinn, near the airport.
• Latvia: the new Riga Central and airport stations.
• Lithuania: a 1.5 km viaduct over the Neris River near Kaunas, the tallest in the Baltics, already partly built under Portuguese engineer Paulo Cruz.

The financing problem

In 2017, the project was estimated at €5.8 billion. By last year, it had risen to €15.3 billion for the first phase alone. Current forecasts stand at around €14 billion: €3 billion for Estonia, €5.5 billion each for Latvia and Lithuania.

But less than 30% of funds are secured, with only €4 billion raised from the EU and national budgets so far. The European Commission, wary of cost overruns, releases funding in small increments.

Baltic officials have looked to Portugal’s public-private partnership (PPP) model for inspiration. Portuguese infrastructure company IP has shared its experience in EU workshops and conferences in Riga, presenting its high-speed rail financing model. Although Portugal still has no high-speed line, its financing approach is seen as a best practice case.

As Rail Baltica’s Anvar Salomets summed it up:
“If we need to move tanks, they will take priority over all trains, which will have to wait until the line is cleared.”